From "Al-Joulani" to "Al-Sharaa": How Do We Interpret the Transformations in Syria?

Since the announcement by "Abu Mohammad al-Joulani" (who later became Ahmad al-Sharaa, or rather returned to his real name), the leader of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham," about the "Deterrence Against Aggression" operation that preceded the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, we have witnessed a distinct political and media performance. This reflects a fundamental shift from the traditional approach of jihadist Islamic movements. The carefully calculated steps and targeted messages indicate a political vision far removed from what we have come to expect from Islamic organizations, especially the hardline ones.

A Political Approach Detached from Traditional Confrontation

Contrary to the confrontational style typical of jihadist Islamists, al-Joulani demonstrates remarkable pragmatism. His announcement of the dissolution of "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham," one of the key components of his foundational project, signals an uncommon political awareness among Islamists, underscoring the necessity of making strategic concessions to broaden the base of support.

The shift doesn't stop there. Al-Joulani (or al-Sharaa) has adopted a moderate approach in dealing with regional and international powers. He has refrained from overt hostility toward Saudi Arabia, despite its fluctuating stances on the Syrian revolution—ranging from explicit support a decade ago to embracing Assad a year ago.

He has also maintained a balanced tone with Russia and a calm one with Iran (though with some firm undertones toward Tehran), despite the profound ideological and political tensions.

In his recent statements—particularly during the interview announced by Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya channel on Sunday, December 29, 2024—he exhibits a form of "courting" toward the anticipated Trump administration, crafting well-considered messages aimed at lifting sanctions and improving relations.

Calculated Messaging and New Alliances

Al-Joulani's decision to choose a Saudi channel as the platform for his first televised Arabic-language interview, despite the "logical" option being Qatar's Al Jazeera, was not random. Saudi Arabia, which had distanced itself from the Syrian revolution and spearheaded efforts to rehabilitate Bashar al-Assad, requires reassuring messages to encourage its support for any emerging regime stemming from the revolution.

Through this move, al-Joulani seeks to build a robust regional support network encompassing Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, with the possibility of Egypt joining, even if it opposes the overthrow of Assad and refuses to recognize the "revolution." Egypt's involvement could be inevitable to align with the Gulf's position or due to its recent rapprochement with Turkey, which reportedly sent reassuring messages to Cairo.

This coalition would add significant weight to any new political project in Syria, granting al-Joulani regional influence that cannot be overlooked.

A Well-Calculated Political Vision or a Dangerous Project?

These transformations suggest that we are witnessing a project marked by political cunning and strategic foresight—an exceptional occurrence among Islamists, especially jihadists, who have historically operated in a confrontational and direct manner, particularly when they perceive themselves to be empowered.

Nevertheless, the project remains fraught with risks. Courting the Trump administration may seem logical, especially since even regional powers like Iran have resorted to this approach. However, relying on Trump as an ally is risky given the unpredictability of his policies and decisions.

Al-Joulani presents a new model of political engagement for Islamic groups—a shift from confrontation to pragmatism. The overarching question, however, remains: does this transformation represent a conscious political vision aimed at achieving stability, or is it part of a more dangerous project seeking to reshape the region according to a still-ambiguous vision?

What is certain is that al-Joulani is not merely a conventional jihadist leader but a political figure seeking to leverage regional and international shifts in favor of a project that appears to understand precisely what it wants and how to achieve it.